2024 Predictions

Nine things on my mind as we head into an incredible year.

1. Fewer VCs. Smaller funds.

Many VCs are looking to fundraise in 2024. For most, smaller funds, longer fundraising cycles, and smaller returns will be the near-term norm.

I think a small but non-trivial percentage of VCs will exit startup investing in 2024. Most will announce that their last fund will be their last fund. Others will announce the start of a wind-down. A few, a la OpenView, will simply slam on the breaks.

2. Foundation AI models will become commoditized.

The true AI value will be in training foundation models with proprietary data for specific use cases.

The big winners of this will be Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, Reddit, and maybe Twitter (I refuse to call it X).

This will feel a lot like the search engine wars of the late '90s (Alta Vista, anyone?)

3. Startups will favor PTEs over FTEs.

Startups have always had to do more with less, but 2024 is going to exacerbate that challenge for early-stage startups further.

In the wake of continued fundraising headwinds (see above), founders will turn to consultants, fractional executives, agencies, and advisors to assist in building the product and growing the user base.

Fulltime employees will still outnumber part-time employees, but the percentage of PTEs will decrease.

4. RIP RTO

Companies will shift their focus away from the debate over remote work versus returning to the office and instead will concentrate on exploring strategies to enhance productivity for employees, irrespective of their work location.

Hot topics will include childcare, commuting stipends, four-day work weeks, more frequent company/team offsites, at-home office/coworking stipends, and smaller offices used for drop-ins and all-hands.

Beneficiaries of the latter include coworking (WeWork), community tech hubs (Atlanta Tech Village), and social clubs (Switchyards, SoHo House).

5. Startup-Founder-to-SMB-Owner pipeline.

Billions (trillions?) in small business dollars are at stake as 70%+ of U.S. small businesses do not have a succession plan, and their owners are eyeballing retirement.

At the same time, many startup founders, facing fundraising headwinds and frustrations over a lack of product market fit, will choose to take over the family business, someone else's business, with many using their entrepreneurial chops to create regional and vertical rollups.

SMBs are a different game, but happy customers, a great salary, and free cash flow are a pipe dream for most startups.

6. B2B + AI = OMG

Currently, we navigate business software using endless menus and steps and lists.

2024 will give us a new generation of AI-native business applications that eliminate energy-sucking steps and not only save time but meaningfully accelerate work.

7. The Vision Pro will blow our minds.

Adoption of Apple's most revolutionary product will be swift. Sales will only be hindered by the supply chain.

The launch of the Vision Pro App Store will mirror that of the 2008 App Store launch in that early winners will win big, and VC dollars will quickly follow.

There will only be a handful of compelling use cases early, but they will be enough to validate the purchase for anyone who can actually get ahold of one. As a sports fan, I think the in-game experiences will be a literal game-changer.

8. Reddit will be the biggest tech IPO of 2024.

Community is a superpower, and Reddit has 2.8 million communities (aka subreddits).

1.5 billion registered users, 430 million active monthly users, and 52 million daily active users can't be wrong. But the thing Wall Street will love the most?

Reddit's proprietary data and the substantial edge it provides in the AI wars.

9. New consumer AI tools will combat AI.

Consumers have adjusted to easily recognizing most AI-generated images and "AI Speak" text, but the learning curve will get exponentially steeper as AI gets better.

That's where AI tools will help us react and, in many ways, be protected by AI itself.

Sadly, critical technology will not reach meaningful adoption in time to assist individual decisions ahead of the 2024 presidential election. An election that will be rife with fake, damaging, compelling AI content in the form of videos and images.